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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday 30 Jan 2009
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Who will kick off in tomorrow
evening's televised Premier League match between Manchester United and Everton?
You might think the answer is a toss of a coin. But you could very easily be
wrong.
Ladbrokes bet on which team in a televised fixture will kick
off. The first surprise to some people is that they offer odds about something
so trivial. The second is that they do not try to build any profit margin into
those odds – these are fun bets, provided as a goodwill gesture to their
customers. And the third is that the away team are always favourite, quoted at
19-20. |
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If you think the home team must represent
value for money at 21-20, you would be wrong, however. The teams to back are
the visitors. A total of 83 Premier League games have been televised in the UK
this season and away teams kicked off in 46 of them – 55%.
Do you
know a season-ticket holder who sits behind the goal where the most vocal home
fans gather? Ask them how often their team kicks toward them in the second
half. The answer, in all probability, will be nearly always. Teams prefer to
kick toward their most passionate fans in the second half, sensing that the
support will help them.
Law VIII of Association Football says: "At the
beginning of the game, choice of ends and the kick-off shall be decided by the
toss of a coin. The team winning the toss shall have the option of choice of
ends or the kick-off." When home teams win the toss, they usually choose ends
and the away teams kick off. But the opposite happens less often, suggesting a
tacit understanding that home teams can kick in their preferred direction.
Novelty markets permit only small stakes so counter this by placing
bets not just at Old Trafford but at St James' Park, the Britannia Stadium and
Anfield.
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