Main Menu Columns Trenspotting No.1 2 3 4 5 6 No.7 8 9 10 11 No.12 13 14 15 No.16 17 18 19 No.20 21 22 23 No.24 25 26 27 No.28 29 30 31 No.32 33 34 35 No.36 37 38 39 Next Latest	.	| Home   | Index   | Info   | This Week   | Poker   | News   | Email 04/04/2008 No.40 rendspotting           Kevin Pullein Friday April 4, 2008       Once the scoring starts, it's not how, it's how many The all-important question for in-play bettors when the scoring starts in football matches is: will the leading team hold on or will the trailing team fight back? It depends not only on the relative abilities of the two teams but also on an area which is sometimes overlooked even though it may sound obvious, that is, how many more goals will be scored? A team whose games tend to be low-scoring are significantly more likely to hold on to a lead than a team of comparable ability whose games tend to be high-scoring. The corollary is also true: a team whose games tend to be high-scoring are significantly more likely to stage a fightback than a team whose games tend to be low-scoring.         For bettors, this means that teams from very similar positions in a league table can have very different prospects during games once the scoring starts. Consider what happened during the past 10 seasons to teams who finished in the middle third - between ninth and 16th - in the Championship, League One and League Two. An analysis of the 50 teams whose games produced fewest goals and the 50 teams whose games produced most goals is the most useful. The average number of points gained by the teams with the lowest scores was 61 and the average number of points gained by the teams with the highest scores was also 61. Overall, therefore, there was nothing to choose between them. But the dynamic during games changed significantly if one of those teams scored first. When one of the teams involved in low-scoring games got the first goal, they went on to win 68% of the time. When one of the teams whose games were high-scoring got the first goal, they went on to win only 62% of the time. When one of the low-score teams conceded first they went on to lose 70% of the time but when one of the high-score teams conceded first they went on to lose only 63% of the time. Bettors need to be aware that a team's prospects of coping with the different challenges that arise during games are influenced greatly by their style of football.     Fill out your e-mail address to receive our newsletter! E-mail address:   First Name:   Last Name:	.