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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday March 28, 2008
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A costly mistake that many
football bettors make at this time of year is to assume teams that need to win
are more likely to do so. Bookmakers quote shorter odds about victories for
teams pursuing a title, promotion, the play-offs or safety from relegation. Yet
there is no evidence that teams desperate for points are any more likely to get
them than they were earlier in the season.
In the past 10 seasons, the
teams who finished in the top four in the Premier League gained an average of
2.0 points from each game. In April they averaged 2.0 points per game and in
May it was 1.8. The figures do not support the idea that such teams perform
better at the end of a season than at other times. |
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The same can be said of teams who were
near the top or bottom of each division in the Football League. In those same
10 seasons the teams who finished in the bottom three places gained an average
of 0.9 points from each game.
In March, April and May they averaged that
same number. Players who are chasing promotion, or fleeing from relegation, may
be under greater pressure and it will inhibit as many of them as it inspires.
On the final day of last season, West Ham escaped relegation by winning
away at the champions Manchester United. We tend to remember occasions when
teams who needed to win did win but forget the numerous times when they did
not. On the final day of the 2004-05 season, the bottom four teams all had a
chance of avoiding relegation if they won but only one of them did. If the odds
about a football match seem to ignore the form of a team that needs to win,
then back the team that does not. Kevin Pullein is football tipster for the
Racing Post.
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