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Kevin Pullein
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Friday March 21, 2008
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The popular image of a
relegation "six- pointer" is of a tight, nervy, niggly game in which there are
few goals but many cards. In reality these games are not greatly different from
many others - and that may be worth knowing during a weekend in which there
will be much at stake at the bottom as well as the top of various
tables.
Six of the bottom eight play each other in the Premier League,
there are relegation scraps in the Championship and four of the bottom six play
each other in League One. The important thing to realise about these fixtures
is that, almost by definition, they involve teams of similar ability. That is
not unusual, in the Premier League a third of all games feature teams separated
by no more than four places. |
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The average number of goals scored in
Premier and Football League games during the last 10 seasons was 2.55. In games
between teams who finished in the bottom four - the most desperate relegation
dogfights - the average number of goals scored was also 2.55. In other words,
the goalscoring pattern in these fixtures was no different from what it was in
many others, which is not what most people imagine. In betting markets on
relegation tussles it is the possibility of a high score that is most likely to
be underestimated.
And it is the possibility of a high number of cards
that is most likely to be overestimated. The reputation these games have for
being very dirty is undeserved. In most bookings markets 10 points are awarded
for a yellow card and 25 for a red. The average make-up in the Premier League
during the last 10 seasons was 36. In games between teams who finished in the
bottom four it was a meagre 2½ points higher at 38.5.
For all
the hype a relegation six-pointer is usually much the same as most other
fixtures between teams of broadly similar ability. The betting markets do not
always recognise this.
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