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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday April 11, 2008
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It is not an area that
receives much publicity but bettors can often find value in the "how goals are
scored" market by putting money on left-footed players hitting the net
first.
On most televised matches, Ladbrokes offer prices on the first
goal being scored by a right foot, a left foot, with a header or no goals at
all. They usually quote 4-6 about a right foot, 7-2 about a left foot, 7-2
about a header and 7-1 about no goals - own goals are ignored. If the opener is
an own goal, the next is treated as the first, and so on. |
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The publicly available figures on how
goals are scored in the Premier League suggest that in 49% of games the first
goal will be scored with a right foot, in 23% with a left foot and in 19% with
a header. In the remaining 9% of games there will be either no goals or only
own goals. In a typical fixture, therefore, a fair set of odds would be: 21-20
right foot, 10-3 left foot, 9-2 header and 10-1 no goals or only own
goals.
Ladbrokes normally quote 7-2 about a left-footed first goal, and
that is slightly bigger than it should be. In games featuring a higher than
usual number of left-footed attackers or midfielders the true odds about a
left-footed opening goal would be even shorter than 10-3, and Ladbrokes' 7-2,
if available, would represent good value for money.
Overall, twice as
many goals are scored with a right foot as a left. It is not because the ball
drops twice as often to a player's right as to his left. It is because nearly
all players are more talented with one foot than the other, and for most
players the more skilful foot is the right. This means it is a left-footed
first goal that can represent value for money.
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