Look at the bottom half of the draw
to dig out the real value in both singles at Flushing Meadows
Allegations of recent match-fixing have failed to dent confidence
in tennis betting with Betfair expecting "turnover to be as thriving as ever"
on the final grand slam of the year, the US Open.
Roger Federer makes
the market before the start of the tournament on Monday. The world No1 is a
best price 4-7 with Sky Bet to win a fourth successive title at Flushing
Meadows and given he has won 10 of the past 15 slams, those odds may be
generous. There is no doubt that he is the most likely winner, but 4-7 is a
price for the big hitters, so the value is to bet each-way (to reach the final)
on a player in the bottom half of the draw.
That rules out Andy Roddick, shunted out
to 33-1 by Totesport when he was drawn in the same quarter as Federer. The
interest lies with Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. The Spaniard is a standout
6-1 with Boyle Sports to win in New York and the Serb rates 7-1 with Ladbrokes
and they are scheduled to meet in the semi-finals. Djokovic has the tougher
draw - Mario Ancic in the first round, a probable meeting with Radek Stepanek
in the second and Lleyton Hewitt a likely last-16 opponent - but Hill's says
the No3 seed "would probably start favourite against Nadal should they meet in
the semi-finals".
At the start of the season Djokovic was available at
40-1 to win the US Open but that price has slowly been cut by the layers after
a string of good performances including semi-final appearances in the last two
grand slams. The bookmakers were then forced to slash the odds about him
winning at Flushing Meadows after he became the first player to defeat both
Federer and Nadal in the same event (he also beat Andy Roddick for good
measure), when claiming the ATP Masters Series Canada title in Montreal. Three
of his four tournament victories this year have come on hard courts and he is
certainly the player the top two seeds fear.
Djokovic's billing must be
hard for Andy Murray to take. The pair, rivals from their junior days, have
enjoyed similar progress throughout their career before injury struck the Scot
earlier this year. Murray is 100-1 with Totesport to win at Flushing Meadows, a
venue most pundits believe will represent his best chance of claiming a grand
slam title. A lack of match practice, however, will seriously hamper his
challenge.
Tim Henman will play his final slam in New York and the
former British No1 was a favourite among the layers. Ladbrokes spokesman David
Williams said: "When he retires he'll be sadly missed by bookmakers. He helped
put tennis on the betting radar but never quite forced us into a massive
payout." It is doubtful Henman will make it past the first round after drawing
Dmitry Tursunov, a player with a 5-1 record against him. Paddy Power offers 7-2
Henman and 1-6 Tursunov.
The top half of the draw in the women's
singles is also to be avoided. For the third grand slam in a row Justin Henin
(2-1 favourite, Blue Square) and Serena Williams (5-1, Blue Square and Hill's)
are in the same quarter. Throw in the two most improved performers of the
season, Jelena Jankovic (10-1, Bet365 and Boyle's) and Ana Ivanovic (10-1,
general), alongside Venus Williams (9-1, Blue Square) in the lower quarter of
the same section and you have five of the top six in the market crammed into
that half.
That leaves Maria Sharapova, the No2 seed and 5-1 shot with
Stan James, looking a solid each-way selection, if fit. The defending champion
at Flushing Meadows has found some form recently with success in San Diego and
her biggest obstacle for a place in the final could be the shin injury that
forced her to withdraw from her latest tournament in Los Angeles .
A bet
which will definitely give you an interest throughout the tournament is a buy
of the number of sets won to love in the men's singles at 14.2 with Sporting
Index. In the past three US Opens there have been 14, 15 and 17, suggesting an
upward trend in what is a low-risk trade.
Buy the number of sets
won to love in the men's singles at 14.2 (click above - Sporting
Index)
Main Menu
rendspotting 
