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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday February 16,
2007 |
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Cups still offer punters plenty of
money spinning action
The FA Cup really is more exciting than the
Premiership or Football League. At least it is if you equate excitement with
action. In knockout ties there are more goals than there are in league fixtures
-and more of many other things, including yellow and red cards. It is obviously
something of which punters should be aware before betting on events such as
this weekend's FA Cup fifth-round ties.
We would expect there to be more
goals overall in the FA Cup than there are in the Premiership or Football
League, for the simple reason that it throws up more mismatches, which tend to
produce higher scores. The most meaningful comparison is one that contrasts the
results of games between teams from the same division in different
competitions. |
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In Premiership and Football League games
played during the last 10 completed seasons - 1996-97 through to 2005-06 -
there was an average of 2.56 goals. In FA Cup ties involving two teams from the
same division - that is to say, both from the Premiership, both from the
Championship, both from League One or both from League Two - there was an
average of 2.66 goals.
It suggests that the odds about there being more
than 2.5 goals in a game between two typical teams from the same division
should be 11-10 if they are playing in the league but evens if they are playing
in the Cup. It is not a big difference but most of the time successful betting
involves being able to identify and take advantage of small differences.
In a sudden-death knockout competition, losing players can become
desperate. The commonest scoring system used in bookings markets is 10 for each
yellow card and 25 for each red. In Premiership games played during the last
seven completed seasons - 1999-2000 through to 2005-2006 - the average bookings
make-up was 35.3.
In FA Cup ties involving two Premiership teams it was
38.5. And this suggests that in a game between two typical Premiership clubs
the odds about the bookings make-up reaching, say, 45 should be 11-5 if they
are playing in the Premiership but only 9-5 if they are playing in the FA Cup.
If you want incident, watch the FA Cup.
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