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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday March 9,
2007 |
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Punters should not be swayed by the
concept of the bogey team. Previous results are irrelevant
There is
a widespread belief in football that certain teams will always play well
against others, irrespective of their form or league position. But the bogey
team is as much a figment of our imaginations as the bogey man. Past results in
a fixture have no influence over future happenings. The teams who seem to have
some sort of spell over their opponents have simply been lucky most of the
time.
The best place to search for evidence of bogey teams would appear
to be the Football League. In the Premiership teams, particularly those such as
Manchester United and Arsenal, have good historical records against many
opponents - not because they are bogey teams but because they are consistently
the best. In the Football League, unlike the Premiership, the best teams leave
at the end of every season, meaning clubs who stay within a division are likely
to play at a similar level. |
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The figures that follow are from a study
of Football League games played last season between teams who had met at least
five times in the previous 10 seasons. If they had met that often, it would
seem reasonable to assume that they were usually of a broadly similar standard.
Last season, 42% of games finished in home wins, 31% in draws and 27%
in away wins. In fixtures that had not produced a home win on any of the
previous five occasions they were played, the proportion of home wins was 42%.
In fixtures that had not produced an away win on any of the past five
occasions, the proportion of away wins was 27%. In other words, teams who had
been doing very badly in a fixture did no worse this time round than everyone
else, and vice versa. It is the best evidence that bogey teams do not exist.
And, obviously, we should not bet on phantoms.
Middlesbrough are said
to be something of a bogey team for their FA Cup sixth-round opponents
Manchester United, because they have won three of the previous six meetings at
the Riverside. Among this weekend's other fixtures, West Bromwich have a good
recent record at Wolves, as do Bradford at Huddersfield, Hartlepool at home to
Lincoln and Macclesfield at home to Shrewsbury. But past victories are
irrelevant. Believers in bogey teams have all been deceived. Kevin Pullein is
football tipster for the Racing Post
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