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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday February 2,
2007 |
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No More Goals
If you bet
during football matches you should try, whenever possible, to bet against
things happening. In most markets this will involve acting as a layer rather
than a backer. This will give you an advantage in that from the moment your bet
is struck the odds will be moving in your favour unless and until something
does happen.
In Premiership and Football League games - to cite just one
easily understood example to illustrate the point - the likelihood of no more
goals being scored increases as follows: after 15 minutes it is 11%, after 30
minutes it is 16%, after 45 minutes it is 25%, after 60 minutes it is 37% and
after 75 minutes it is 58%.
If nothing does happen, there may be
opportunities later in the game to close out your position for a guaranteed
profit. Having backed, say, no more goals you could now back one or more goals
and, because of the movement in the market, assure yourself of a profit
whatever the final score. In practice, it has to be said, it can be difficult
on the exchanges to close out a position at a fair price - but, curious though
it may sound, this difficulty actually highlights the second advantage of
betting against things happening. |
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While a match is in progress, the best
odds available on the exchanges usually represent better value to layers than
backers, though not often by a big enough margin to cover the commission of
those who pay the maximum five per cent.
For the reason already
discussed, layers are happy to put up prices - if they are not matched straight
away, their bets will represent even better value to them if matched later. But
backers are much more cautious about offering prices - for them, prices can
become out of date so quickly.
The true odds about more goals being
scored in a Premiership or Football League match, for example, jump from 21-20
after 71 minutes to 6-5 after just 73 minutes and 11-8 after just 75 minutes.
The same sort of observation could equally well be made of other markets, such
as the outright result. For both technical and practical reasons, it is easier
to make money during a game if you bet against things happening.
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