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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday February 9,
2007 |
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Match Corners
One of the best
strategies for trying to win money in the more obscure football markets is to
try to identify little-known but well-established patterns in a team's play
that are not fully appreciated by everyone else. It can be applied, among other
places, in the increasingly popular range of markets on which team will gain
more corners in a match. You can have either a straightforward win/draw/loss
bet or, alternatively, take your pick from a selection of handicaps.
It
has been argued here before that when you are betting on the total corners in a
match the best-value prices will often be at the extremes - those on either the
high numbers or the low numbers. In other corner markets, the best value will
often be on teams who have unusual corner-gathering habits, like Liverpool and
Fulham. As a general rule, the more goals a team score the more corners they
gain. It stands to reason, really. Both are potential consequences of attacking
play. It means that the team likely to score more goals will, in most matches,
also be the team likely to gain more corners. |
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The precise relationship, however, differs
from team to team, and it has differed most of all, in the Premiership, for
Liverpool and Fulham. In each of Rafael Benítez's three seasons,
Liverpool have gained a much bigger share of the corners than could be
anticipated from the goals they have scored and conceded. They have scored more
goals in 56% of matches but gained more corners in 71%.
If points were
awarded for gaining corners rather than for goals, Liverpool would be top of
the league this season and at the bottom would be Fulham. In each of Chris
Coleman's four seasons as manager, Fulham have won a small share of corners.
Overall, they have conceded more goals in 41% of matches but conceded more
corners in 68%. The markets do not always acknowledge how ingrained these
patterns are.
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