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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday March 16,
2007 |
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Red cards, Yellow
Cards
You can sometimes make money in discipline-related markets if
you are aware that the dirtiest teams do not receive many more cards than their
opponents. The worst-behaved teams provoke retaliation. Well-behaved teams can
inspire uncharacteristically fair play in their opponents. Some bookmakers do
not realise this when they are considering things like which team in a match
will receive the first card or the most cards.
The average number of
yellow cards received by each team in Premiership matches played during the
last nine completed seasons was 1.6. Among the teams who received two or more
yellow cards per game, the average number of yellows received by their
opponents was 1.9 - more than those opponents would expect to receive.
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A current example: in most bookings
markets 10 points are awarded for each yellow card and 25 for each red. The
Premiership team who have accumulated most bookings points in each of the last
three seasons are Blackburn. Since Mark Hughes became manager - effectively the
same period - Blackburn have received an average of 24 bookings points per
game. But the teams they were playing against have received a similar average:
23 bookings points per game.
One of the cleanest teams in the
Premiership this season have been Reading, who have averaged 13 bookings points
per game. One of the dirtiest teams have been Newcastle, who have averaged 21
bookings points per game. Yet Reading have received the greater number of
bookings points in a match just as often as Newcastle.
A bet that can
seem crazy to the uninitiated is sometimes very sensible - that a team who are
known to be dirty will receive fewer cards in a match, or that a team who are
known to be clean will receive more cards in a match.
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