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| Kevin Pullein
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| Friday May 18,
2007 |
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A profitable strategy for the
play-offs
In big games, bet on a small number of bookings. It is a
policy that has proved successful over the years and may do so again in the FA
Cup final and the Champions League final. It is also a policy that most punters
think is daft, which is why it has proved so profitable - the opinions of other
people influence the odds.
In important games yellow and red cards tend
to be more plentiful than in low-profi le games. But betting on a low number of
bookings in such fixtures is a good strategy because cards do not become as
plentiful as the bookmakers' prices would have us believe. |
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In most bookings markets, 10 points are
awarded for each yellow card and 25 for each red. In Premiership games over the
past 10 seasons, the average points total was 36. In games involving two of
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United the average make-up was 47.
In FA Cup ties between the big four the average make-up was also 47.
Yet
on such occasions the spreads and over/under lines tend to be around the middle
50s, as they are for tomorrow's FA Cup fi nal between Chelsea and Manchester
United. The best value bet currently available on a low number of cards at
Wembley is Betfred's 4-5 about a total below 55. It has occurred in more than
60% of games between Chelsea and Manchester United during the Jose Mourinho era
and in nearly 70% of all big-four games in the past 10 seasons.
The
Champions League final has produced no more cautions and dismissals than
earlier knockout rounds or during the group stage. The average bookings make-up
in the past 15 fi nals has been only 38. A low total may represent a good bet
when Liverpool play Milan next Wednesday, as it did two years ago.
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