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Kevin Pullein
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Friday May 04,
2007 |
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Bookmakers are likely to overestimate
the trend
The final few games of a season tend to be the most
action-packed - but bookmakers are likely to overestimate the trend. In the
Premiership and Football League in the past 20 seasons, the average number of
goals scored in games played between August and April was 2.6. In May this
figure rose to 2.7 and the proportion of games producing three goals or more -
a popular bet - jumped from 48% to 51%. The odds typically appropriate to the
bet would have shortened from around 11-10 to around 20-21 - but bookmakers
often shortened them further than they should.
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In the closing weeks of a season, we
encounter teams with everything to play for and those with nothing to play for.
Both are liable to become involved in higher scoring games than before. The
more desperately a team are trying to score a goal the more likely they become
to get one but the more likely they become to concede. A team who find
themselves able to play without a care ease into a more open game, resulting in
more goals at both ends.
Teams who need to win - those who are striving
for a title, promotion, play-off qualification or safety from relegation - are
liable to collect more cards than at other times. In the nine seasons before
this one, the average number of yellow cards received by Manchester United
players in Premiership games between August and April was 1.3. In May - when
they were often challenging for honours - this figure leapt to 1.8.
The
end-of-season trends are for more goals in all games and more cards for some
teams. When betting, however, what matters is how those trends relate to the
odds on offer. And with bookies likely to overestimate how much more action
there will be, the better option is to bet on lower goal and booking totals.
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