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Kevin Pullein
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Friday April 18, 2008
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A useful thing to know about
expected mismatches is that they will not necessarily produce an avalanche of
goals. Tomorrow fourth-placed Liverpool travel to 19th-placed Fulham while
third-placed Arsenal host 16th-placed Reading. In games such as these, the best
team is likely to score more goals but the worst team is likely to score fewer
goals than usual. The net effect is that they are likely to produce only
slightly more goals than most ordinary fixtures. It is something that many
bettors do not realise.
The average number of goals scored in Premier
League games during the past 10 seasons was 2.6. In games between teams
separated by between 13 and 15 places - the gap in tomorrow's fixtures - the
average was only slightly higher at 2.8. In games between teams separated by 16
or more places, the average was still only 2.9. |
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In this season's two fixtures between
Manchester United and bottom-of-the-table Derby, there were six goals. In all
games between the current top and bottom four, the average number of goals was
2.8. If you asked fans how many goals are scored, on average, in the most
lopsided games, how many would give you an answer of less than three?
In top v bottom games in any competition the bets that sometimes
represent value for money are those that reject exaggerated expectations and
involve a not extraordinary total of goals. In the Premier League during the
past 10 seasons, 52% of games finished with fewer than 2.5 goals - the
commonest goals betting line. When teams were separated by 13 or more places,
47% of games finished with fewer than 2.5 goals. Yes, these games were less
likely to be low-scoring, but not all that much less likely. For every time
that a team such as Liverpool score six goals, as they did at home to Derby,
there will be a time when they are involved in a goalless draw, as they were at
home to Birmingham. Kevin Pullein is football tipster for the Racing Post
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