Main Menu Columns Trenspotting No.1 2 3 4 5 6 No.7 8 9 10 11 No.12 13 14 15 No.16 17 18 19 No.20 21 22 23 No.24 25 26 27 No.28 29 30 31 No.32 33 34 Next Latest	.	| Home   | Index   | Info   | This Week   | Poker   | News   | Email 01/02/2008 No.35 rendspotting           Kevin Pullein Friday February 1, 2008       The best "goal-time" bets are those predicting a late start to the scoring in games that are likely to be lopsided. On paper there were few easier home fixtures this season for the elite teams than Arsenal v Wigan, Manchester United v Sunderland or Liverpool v Fulham. The home team won each game but none of the goals was scored earlier than the 72nd minute. Bear that in mind when betting on other supposedly unbalanced contests, starting with Liverpool v Sunderland tomorrow.         It is true that the more goals there are likely to be, the earlier the first is likely to be scored. However, bookmakers sometimes overlook the fact that in fixtures that seem mismatched the favourites should be expected to score a comparatively large number of goals but the outsiders should be expected to score a comparatively small number. The total number of goals scored on such occasions is often not exceptionally high. Consequently, the prospects of a late start to the scoring are not so low, as the following figures illustrate. The average number of goals scored in Premier League games over the past 10 seasons was 2.6. In Arsenal and Manchester United home games - most of which were apparent mismatches - the average number of goals scored was higher, but only slightly at 3.0. In 13% of all those games the scoring did not start until the final half-hour. The proportion of Arsenal and Manchester United home games in which the scoring started during the final 30 minutes was lower but again only slightly at 11%. When any of the "big four" play at home to the weakest teams, you will be offered up to 16-1 about the first goal being scored between the 61st and 75 minutes, and up to 25-1 about it being scored between the 76th and 90th minutes. If you back both, you effectively receive almost 10-1 about the first goal being scored during the last half an hour. The true odds are probably nearer 8-1. It will always be a long shot but not always quite as long a shot as the bookmakers' odds would have us believe.     Fill out your e-mail address to receive our newsletter! E-mail address:   First Name:   Last Name:	.