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Kevin Pullein
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Friday February 8, 2008
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Why, you might wonder,
would anyone want to bet on the first half of a football match producing more
goals than the second? The reason is that in certain circumstances it is more
likely to happen than bookmakers' odds would have us believe. And those
circumstances are games that are likely to produce lots of goals; for example,
those in Scotland when the Old Firm play at home, as Rangers do tomorrow
against Falkirk.
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To see how to make the most of the odds,
consider the trends. In the past 10 seasons of the English Premier and Football
Leagues the first half produced more goals just over 29% of games. In just over
27% of games both halves produced the same number of goals and in just over 43%
of games the second half produced more goals.
In the
higher-scoring-half market for almost every game several bookmakers quote 9-4
about the first half, 9-4 about a tie and evens about the second half. The
first half represents the better bet - 9-4 implies just under a 31% chance -
but it still represents bad value. For some fixtures, though, this can change.
The more goals there are likely to be in a match the less likely it
becomes that both halves will yield the same number. The chance of the first
half producing more goals and the chance of the second half producing more
goals both go up, but it is the former that can sometimes represent a good bet.
The reason is that bookmakers know that very few people are prepared
to bet on it. Whether they are conscious of it or not, most betters seek
thrills, and there is no thrill in watching the second half of a match simply
hoping that it will produce fewer goals than you have already seen.
Games that have consistently generated large numbers of goals are those
in the Scottish Premier League when Celtic play at Parkhead or Rangers play at
Ibrox. When the Old Firm played at home to non-Old Firm opponents during the
past 10 seasons the proportion of games in which the first half produced more
goals was 33%. If you can get 9-4 about something that is nearer a 2-1 shot,
you have a good bet.
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