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Kevin Pullein
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Fri Dec 19, 2008 |
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How bad do results have to be
before a Premier League manager loses his job? It is a question punters need to
answer to bet in "sack race" markets. Blackburn Rovers fired Paul Ince for
failing to win any of his last 11 games but managers are often dismissed for
less.
A typical sacked Premier League manager is one whose team had
been performing at relegation level for the last dozen or so games and seemed
to be getting worse. The teams who finished one place above the relegation line
in the past 10 seasons gained an average of 39 points, or just over one per
game. Forty managers who started one of those seasons at a Premier League club
left involuntarily before its end. On average, their teams had gained
approximately 1½ points from their last three games, 4 points from their
last six games, and 9½ points from their last 12. |
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Thus, they gained fewer than half as many
points from their last three games as they did from their last six, and fewer
than half as many points from their last six games as they did from their last
12. In other words, results had been getting progressively worse. Over the
whole period they had been performing at a relegation-threatening level,
averaging just 0.8 points per game. Half of these teams were already in the
drop zone and most of the rest were heading rapidly toward it.
Obviously, different clubs start out with different degrees of faith in
their manager, and retain different degrees of confidence in his ability to get
them out of any slump they might find themselves in. Great calm is being
expressed at the moment on behalf of the owners of Manchester City.
It
is easy, however, to understand why Mark Hughes is currently 7-2 favourite with
Paddy Power to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post. His team
Manchester City are one place above the relegation line and from their last 12
games they have gained just two wins, three draws and seven defeats. Typically,
a sacked Premier League manager gained these results from his last 12 games:
two wins, three draws and seven defeats.
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