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Kevin Pullein
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Thurs Sep 12, 2008
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In games featuring a
seemingly forlorn outsider, bookmakers sometimes underestimate the prospect of
the supposed no-hopers winning at least one half. This happens most often when
Celtic or Rangers play away to anyone else in the Scottish Premier League. Over
the next two weekends Celtic travel to Motherwell and Kilmarnock; the following
weekend, Rangers visit Hibernian.
As the season unfolds, it will be
worth keeping an eye on the markets for teams to win either half. It is
comparatively rare for Celtic or Rangers to lose away to opponents from outside
the Old Firm. Over the past 10 seasons, it has happened in one game out of
every eight. It is much more common, though, for Rangers or Celtic to concede
the most goals in at least one of the halves in those matches. Over the past 10
seasons, that has happened in almost one game out of every three - 30% of the
time, to be precise. |
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At the beginning of this season, you could
get odds of around 4-1 or 7-2 about Celtic or Rangers conceding the most goals
in either half away to opponents from outside the Old Firm, and any repeat of
those offers would seem to represent value for money. If past experience is any
guide - and there is no obvious reason it should not be - we can expect Celtic
and Rangers to lose at least one half in five of the 17 matches in a season in
which they play away to "other" opponents.
A similar pattern is
discernible in similar-sized mismatches in the Premier and Football Leagues.
The following figures are also from the past 10 seasons: in Football League
games involving a home team that finished at least 20 places below the away
team, the home team won 13% of the time - roughly once in every eight attempts.
But they scored most goals in at least one half in 30% of those games -
almost once in every three attempts. The prospect of rank outsiders winning at
least one half are better than punters and, more importantly, bookmakers
sometimes think.
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