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Kevin Pullein
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Fri Dec 5, 2008 |
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Teams who have already
qualified for the Champions League knockout stage are liable to ease off in
their final group game. Those who do not know whether they will finish first or
second ease off less than those who can no longer alter their position. It is
worth bearing this in mind next week if you are betting on Champions League
Matchday 6. An unusually high total of 13 teams have already qualified for the
knockout stage, but only one of them is assured of progress as group winners:
Barcelona. Most seasons, only about nine teams have qualified with a fixture to
spare.
Winning your group can make an important difference. It means
that in the first knockout round you will play opponents who finished
runners-up in their group and the second leg of the tie will be at home. You
get two advantages, and it seems this is something of which coaches and players
are at least partly conscious. Consider these figures from Champions League
games played during the last five seasons between teams who had already
qualified and those who either had not or could not. |
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Of the teams who had already qualified but
did not know whether they would finish first or second, 56% won their final
group game. Previously, these teams had won 63% of their games. In other words,
they did less well after qualifying than they had done before.
Of the
teams who had already qualified but could no longer alter their position, only
24% won their final group game. Previously, these teams had won 72% of their
games. Clearly, these teams wound down dramatically. And who can blame them?
There is no point in expending any more effort.
Next week, four already
qualified teams will play each other. However, seven already qualified teams
whose finishing position is still uncertain will play opponents who have not
qualified: Internazionale, Atlético Madrid, Liverpool, Manchester
United, Villarreal, Juventus and Real Madrid. These teams are likely to perform
less strenuously than they usually do, because they have already achieved their
overriding objective, but they are unlikely to wind down completely, because
there is another worthwhile objective that could still be achieved.
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