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Chance, Mathematics and Probability
Also see Theory


How to Take a Penalty:
The Mathematical Curiosities of Sport

by Rob Eastaway, John Haigh


'An interesting read for even the most maths-phobic'. The Good book guide

Why might it help a penalty taker to look at a clock before he kicks the ball? Does winning the toss actually matter? And why should some people consider playing darts blindfold?

'How to Take a Penalty' takes a novel and intriguing look at sport, by exploring the mathematics behind the action. Discover, for instance, the surprising links between boxing and figure skating and between American football and cricket, the unusual location of England's earliest 'football' (in a parish church), the 26.5-degree 'trick' snooker shot, the pros and cons of being a consistent golfer, and the formula for winning a game of tennis.

With a subtitle 'the hidden mathematics of sport' I thought this might be dry, but in fact I read it in one sitting. The maths in here is accessible, and the harder stuff is stuck away in the appendix. Lots of sports included, though the most commonly referred to are football, cricket, tennis, rugby and athletics. Great chapter on darts. A very interesting read.


Hardcover - 192 pages (June 17, 2005)     £9.09     $22.95




Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street
by William Poundstone


This is an excellent book about the discovery of the Kelly formula that is unknown outside gambling. This story has three protagonists. Two of them were scientists working at Bell Labs: Claude Shannon, a genius polymath who developed information theory; and John Kelly, a maverick genius, who is directly responsible for the development of Kelly's formula. The third one is a brilliant MIT mathematician, Ed Thorp.

As the author states, Ed Thorp's genius consists in "...his continuous ability to discover new market inefficiencies ... as old ones played out." Ed Thorp closed this second fund in 2002. He is now independently exploring inefficiencies in gambling.

Claude Shannon amassed large wealth by recording one of the best investment records. His performance had little to do with Kelly's formula. Between 1966 and 1986, his record beat even Warren Buffet (28% to 27% respectively). Shannon strategy was similar to Buffet. Both their stock portfolios were concentrated, and held for the long term. Shannon achieved his record by holding mainly three stocks (Teledyne, Motorola, and HP). The difference between the two was that Shannon invested in technology because he understood it well, while Buffet did not.

John Kelly was a chain smoking, gun collecting brilliant physicist. He died young at 41 of an aneurysm. He worked closely with Shannon at Bell Labs. Besides being a charismatic character the author does not write much about his life compared to the other two.


Hardcover - 400 pages (September 14, 2005)     £13.96     $17.82




Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
by Peter L. Bernstein


Bernstein has managed to take a subject which at first sight seems intensely boring, and has made it fascinating. Whether or not you have any interest in Risk, Statistics or Econimics, you owe it to yourself to read this book. It is quite simply a "Ripping Yarn". Its greatness lies in Bernstein's ability to tell the story in an accessible manner, without dumbing down the essential facts. Let me say it again: Read this book because it is a fascinating and well written story. The fact you will know a lot more about Risk at the end of it is an incidental, but very welcome, extra.


Paperback - 394 pages (9 October, 1998)     £8.39     $13.57


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