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Gamblers who have a good grasp of
mathematical probabilities tend to fare better than those who
don’t.
But don’t worry; this isn’t necessarily about deep
mathematical complex understanding. That’s because with all forms of
gambling on sports there are huge amounts of qualitative data to consider. This
is what most of us love about it.
Nevertheless, a basic understanding of
probabilities and the acceptance of losses as an inevitable part of the
gambling process are essential requirements that many gamblers simply
don’t possess.
So let’s say, for example, that you study all
you can about a race using as much
online horse racing form as
you can glean. You come up with a runner in a six horse handicap that you deem
has as good a chance as any other.
In other words, you are by no means
certain of the horse’s victory, but you think the handicapper has things
about right. Ergo, your selection has a one in six chance of winning -
according to your analysis.
Next, you see on the exchanges that your
horse is exactly 5-1. So do you back it? The answer is no you don’t
because although 5-1 odds reflect accurately a one in six chance of winning,
you have to take account of the exchange’s five per cent commission. In
short, the horse is worth backing at 5.36-1 or better.
Of course, the
trick isn’t to sweat this sort of mathematical detail too much, but to
find the odds at any sport that you deem to be anomalously high. You can afford
to cherry-pick. So staying with our example, if you could find a hose in this
race you thought has as good a chance as any which happened to be, say, 9-1,
then back it. Follow your own judgement and accept that you’ll still lose
most bets. But the winners would more than make up for the losses as long as
your initial analysis is sound..
Of course here at The Good Gambling
Guide we promote sensible, safe and secure gambling at all times. Knowing your
limits and sticking to them is important and every site we mention will have
details on their pages of help in your location should you need guidance or
help. Should you be playing across borders, which is perfectly okay, a little
search on the internet will give local contacts if you feel you need them.
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