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Can you stick to your guns? |
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Do you have a system for your
UK
racing betting - and if you do, have you really seen it through and does it
work?
Many students of form and fans of horse racing are eternal
optimists but most unduly so. If you looked back on your horse race
gambling history over a long enough period the chances are that it will
have proved a failure. This is the case for almost all gamblers as the
bookmakers attrition erodes profits.
So why do we all keep doing
it? As Einstein once said the definition of insanity is repeating the
same thing over and over again and expecting different results or words
to that effect.
Well we do it because were unduly optimistic and
we also lack self-discipline. And its this last factor that is most
interesting when thinking about a system to beat the market.
Thats because we could all probably have a fair crack of the whip
at this. Most racing fans study form and were all capable or factoring in
trainer records at courses, and looking at a whole barrage of other stats that
give us a fighting chance. Were also all capable of hunting around for
the best odds available and steadfastly refusing to accept anything less than
X price weve decided on.
Whats more there
are endless apps and software programmes that take all the parameters that we
want to input into them and do all the hard work for us even in
searching continually for odds. In short there are likely more systems
than you need.
But heres the thing we dont test them
rigorously enough. How many of us can honestly say weve devised a robust
system, then truly tried and tested it over a sufficient length of time? There
will be some gamblers whove been able to answer a resounding yes to all
this but most cant. And of the ones who have most will have
found their system wanting. So its the system itself that needs
tweaking.
But more often than not were too weak to adhere
to the principles weve set ourselves because it requires too much
self-discipline and its a little too boring during the test phase, as we
get to grips with things.
Despite all this, we should still try. The
advent of the betting exchanges has made it perfectly possible to make a steady
living by betting on horse
racing - and many people do achieve this albeit in different ways.
And with the biggest exchange of all, Betfair, the amounts wagered can
be huge so theres no shortage of market depth. But you still have
to have an edge to beat the market. Thats because the exchanges charge a
commission usually around five per cent per winning bet. In other words,
you have to be five per cent better than your rivals to come out on top. And
even then youre likely still only breaking even. So the exchanges
commission works in much the same way as the
house
edge does in casino games like roulette; you get pretty close to even money
- but not quite.
So this is where the system youve devised
(whatever that may be) and the self-discipline really come into play. The
tiniest of margins can make an enormous cumulative difference over a long
period of time and with every single trade you place - you have to bear this in
mind at all times in order to come out ahead. Remember, too, that no-one can
get everything right all the time or even most of the time. Its
simply a matter of searching for what you deem to be good value, striking the
best bargain you possibly can, and trying to push the envelope as much as
possible to overcome that five per cent.
You may find some of the apps
supplied by Betfair and others helpful in this regard it really all
depends how techie you are and how much of an analyst you like to be. It also
depends on whether your system is to place multiple bets on multiple races each
day, searching for value or glitches in the market etc., or whether youre
more of a student of form, placing one relatively larger bet every now and
again. Each system has its merits as does backing and laying in running if you
find you have the eye for this sort of thing, a good SIS feed and youre
quick on the draw. But its hard to master this art.
Of course, the
most important person to validate your system with is yourself. But it also
pays to have a partner who can challenge your thinking, your system and your
decisions (though it has to be said, this is easier if youre more of an
occasional gambler look for relatively fewer punts). The trick is to test the
system you have devised, honing it continually until you feel you have it
right. Then either put it into practice in demonstration mode only (but always
using real time races and prices etc.) or play for small stakes.
The
essential thing during the testing process, though, is to treat it like its
real like the money really matters. This isnt an easy thing to
achieve, however, so its best to try to build your stake up gradually
adding a little more real cash along the way IF its successful. In
this way, you can hopefully arrive at a point where you have a meaningful stake
through your own endeavours, with the addition of a little real cash now and
again as you build.
On the other hand, youll probably do what most
of us do and fail either through your system not being robust enough, or
you lack of self-discipline. But at least by testing it first, youll
either have lost nothing (working in a simulated mode only) or relative
pennies.
Good luck and try to stick to your
guns.
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