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The Best (And Worst)
Racecourses
for Betting on the Favourite |
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There are many factors
that go into drawing up a shortlist of selections as far as horse racing
betting is concerned, and all punters have their own idea on which is the most
important – is it form, going, the record of a jockey/trainer, previous
performances at this level…or something else?
Only occasionally
will the racecourse itself get a look in, and yet maybe this should be more of
a factor when you consider how the nature of a track can impact upon how the
horses perform – especially the favourite. |
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| 'Goodwood Racecourse' by Janine Forbes (CC
BY-SA 3.0) |
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There are courses where
a front-running favourite may be aided by an easy run-in or, conversely,
the opposite may be true. Tight, undulating tracks with lots of sharp bends
also tend to see the cream, i.e. the favourite, rise to the top. You can check
out the latest
horse
racing results for evidence of that.
So here’s a quick guide to
the racecourses that have been typically kind to those who are backing the
favourite…and other tracks where swerving the market leader might just be
a wise decision.
The Best
Racecourses to Back the Favourite
Using
information from FlatStats, we've analysed racecourses across
the country, with information on a range of competitions and
races.
Over a ten-year period from September 2010 to 2020, it was
Folkestone that had the highest win percentage for favourites, but sadly the
course is no longer in use there. Instead, that honour now belongs to the turf
track at Lingfield, where 36.4% of market leaders have prevailed. But
interestingly, a blind £1 SP wager on all favourites at the course would
have yielded a net loss of £56.99.
As far as the most profitable
racecourse for backing favourites is concerned, the stats suggest that Goodwood
is the ideal venue. A win ratio of 32.6% is backed by a healthy profit of
£31.48 if you had backed all of the market fancies in the study period.
There are a couple of reasons for that perhaps. Clearly, Goodwood hosts
a number of high-profile meetings every year, at which the favourites will be
proven, quality performers – not ‘weak’ favourites we might see
at lower-profile courses. And the actual characteristics of Goodwood allow the
best to prosper, with a five-furlong run-in that is essentially all downhill,
allowing the quickest horses to hit the front even if they are trailing behind
at the final turn.
The
Worst Racecourses to Back the Favourite
In the FlatStats data,
arguably the worst racecourse to back the favourite at is Wetherby, where the
win ratio sits at just 27% for an ROI on bets of -20%. |
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| 'Ayr Racecourse' by William Craig (CC
BY-SA 3.0) |
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However, that is a small
sample with few races hosted there, and so of the more prolific venues the
honour of worst track to back the favourite at goes to Ayr.
In 1200
surveyed races, the favourite prevailed on 334 occasions – a success rate
of just 27.8%.
So why is Ayr such a graveyard for favourites? Again, it
has a downhill finish which should favour quicker horses, but the run-in can be
fairly lung-bursting and on a wide track like this there is ample ground to be
overtaken. Ayr is also
particularly prone to heavy ground, which can shift the
balance in favour of the battling outsider.
As ever, this is not exact
science, so before placing any bets on – or laying – the favourite,
be sure to do your research! |
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