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Kevin Pullein
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Thurs 19 Mar 2009 |
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The first goal is important
in any football match. Only one out of every nine teams who open the scoring
end up losing. If you want to bet on which team will score the first goal,
there is a fairly simple way in which you can form an idea of what odds would
be good or bad.
The first thing you have to do is estimate the strength
of the participants. Use your knowledge of the game. If all past results were
expunged and the season started anew tomorrow, where in the table do you think
each team would finish? |
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In the Football League during the last 11
seasons, home teams scored first in 53% of matches and away teams scored first
in 39% of matches. In the remaining 8% of matches, there were no goals.
For every place a home team finished above an away team, the chance of
the hosts scoring the first goal went up by approximately 1% and the chance of
the visitors scoring the first goal went down by approximately 1% and
vice versa. In games featuring a home team who finished two places above the
away side, there was a 55% chance of them scoring first.
In matches
featuring a home team who finished two places below the away team, there was a
51% chance of them scoring first. In the Premier League there are greater
differences in ability between teams than there are in the Football League.
These are reflected in the frequency with which different calibres of team
score first. In the Premier League during the last 11 seasons, home teams
scored first in 54% of matches and away sides scored first in 38% of matches.
Again, 8% of matches finished goalless. For every place that a home team
finished above an away team, the chance of the hosts scoring the first goal
increased by roughly 1.5% and the chance of the visitors scoring the first goal
decreased by roughly 1.5%.
The key to profitable first-goal betting is
not picking the right team either team can score first but
backing them only at good odds, and you will now have an idea of what those
are.
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