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19/03/2009 No.58
rendspotting
 
   
 
 
Kevin Pullein
Thurs 19 Mar 2009
 
 
 
The first goal is important in any football match. Only one out of every nine teams who open the scoring end up losing. If you want to bet on which team will score the first goal, there is a fairly simple way in which you can form an idea of what odds would be good or bad.

The first thing you have to do is estimate the strength of the participants. Use your knowledge of the game. If all past results were expunged and the season started anew tomorrow, where in the table do you think each team would finish?
 
     

In the Football League during the last 11 seasons, home teams scored first in 53% of matches and away teams scored first in 39% of matches. In the remaining 8% of matches, there were no goals.

For every place a home team finished above an away team, the chance of the hosts scoring the first goal went up by approximately 1% and the chance of the visitors scoring the first goal went down by approximately 1% – and vice versa. In games featuring a home team who finished two places above the away side, there was a 55% chance of them scoring first.

In matches featuring a home team who finished two places below the away team, there was a 51% chance of them scoring first. In the Premier League there are greater differences in ability between teams than there are in the Football League. These are reflected in the frequency with which different calibres of team score first. In the Premier League during the last 11 seasons, home teams scored first in 54% of matches and away sides scored first in 38% of matches. Again, 8% of matches finished goalless. For every place that a home team finished above an away team, the chance of the hosts scoring the first goal increased by roughly 1.5% and the chance of the visitors scoring the first goal decreased by roughly 1.5%.

The key to profitable first-goal betting is not picking the right team – either team can score first – but backing them only at good odds, and you will now have an idea of what those are.
 
 
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